2011 Preview By the Numbers: New England Patriots vs. Steelers

Of all the teams in the league, there is one team that can claim they have owned the Steelers recently, and that is the New England Patriots.

This season, the Pats will make an appearance in Heinz Field which is kind of like inviting the vampire into your house. You give him all his power and he is going to try to suck the life out of you.

Recent History

The fact is that it’s not even the Patriots so much as one Patriots’ player: That player is Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr.

Brady was drafted in 2000 and has played the Steelers in seven games, including the AFC Championship game that he started and Drew Bledsoe finished. In those seven games, the Steelers are 1-6. The only win they have over Brady was in 2004 when they ended the Patriots’ NFL record 21-game winning streak.

There was one other win over the Pats. That was in 2008. You remember that season, don’t you? Brady was injured in week one and missed the entire season. The Steelers played against Matt Cassell as the quarterback of the Pats and won easily, 33-10.

Overall, in the last ten meetings, the Steelers are 3-7 against the Patriots.

New England’s Offense vs. Pittsburgh’s Defense

I’m not going to sugarcoat this. There are two things you simply must do to beat the Patriots: You must win the turnover battle and you must run the ball effectively to control the clock and keep Tom Brady on the sideline. That was how the Browns surprised them, and how the Jets beat them twice last year, once in the playoffs. (Of course, the Jets can say they have one of the best corners in football.)

If you allow Brady time, he can, and will, take any defense in the league apart. According to footballoutsiders.com, the Patriots had the best passing offense in the NFL, and it wasn’t even a contest.

Using their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) stat, the Pats passing offense was 72.5% better than the average NFL passing offense. They were pretty effective on the run, too. Their rushing offense DVOA was 27.1%, meaning they were 27.1% better than the average NFL team at running the ball. However, I wouldn’t expect much more than the token number of rushing attempts in this game, just to keep the Steelers’ pass rushers honest.

Brady himself was the league leader in DVOA for quarterbacks with a value of 53.3%. That means on any given play, he is 53.3% percent better than an average NFL quarterback.

Because of that, the Pats receiving corps hardly missed the departure of Randy Moss. Brady makes receivers better because he is much better than most quarterbacks.

Wes Welker was the Patriots most productive receiver. He was tied for fifth for receivers in the league with 86 receptions, but 26th with 848 yards. He wasn’t even in the top 15 for TDs for receivers.

According to footballoustsiders.com, he was the 24th best receiver in the league (Using Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, DYAR).

What does all this tell us? Quite simply, it tells us that even if they do not try to run the ball, which they won’t have must success doing anyway, the Patriots are capable of beating the Steelers very soundly because Tom Brady and his no-name receiving corp will take advantage of the weakness of the Steelers’ defense.

Just like nearly every other time they have played.