Going into this season, the Tennessee Titans were considered an afterthought in a division which contained the perennially powerful Colts and up-and-coming Jaguars.  Although they also made the playoffs last year, losing to the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, people seemed to think Jacksonville was the team primed to make the jump to the next level when Peyton Manning and company began their eventual decline.

The Jags were quickly exposed as an overrated farce of a team while Indianapolis stumbled out of the gate due to injuries to key players.  Meanwhile, Tennessee got off to a fast start and never looked back.  Throughout the majority of the season, the Titans have consistently been ranked the top team in the AFC.  While it was easily justied when they were undefeated, the team has gone 2-2 over the past four games and could even wind up losing the #1 seed in the playoffs if they were to lose this weekend.

While their opponents, the Pittsburgh Steelers, have marched through the toughest schedule in NFL history, a close examination of Tennessee’s year reveals an assortment of creampuffs and pushovers.  Rather than just knee-jerk declaring them the best team in the AFC due to their record, it becomes more and more apparent that this is a team whose reputation is built on a lie.  In fact, going week by week through their schedule, it becomes more and more clear that this team hasn’t beat anybody at all.

1 – Jacksonville W (17 – 10)     Jacksonville (5-9) stinks.

2 – Cincinnati W (24 – 7)       Cincinnati (2-11) stinks.

3 – Houston W (31 – 12)     Houston (7-7) came on late but stunk early.

4 – Minnesota W (30 – 17)     Winning record but Gus Frerotte?  Really?

5 – Baltimore W (13 – 10)    Rookie QB on a team that we beat twice.

7 – Kansas City W (34 – 10)     KC (2-12) stinks.

8 – Indianapolis W (31 – 21)     Manning, Harrison, and Sanders were all hurt.

9 – Green Bay W (19 – 16)     Green Bay (5-9) stinks yet came thisclose.

10 – Chicago W (21 – 14)     Kyle Orton?

11 – Jacksonville W (24 – 14)     See above.

12 – NY Jets L (34 – 13)      Jets are overrated yet blew them out at home.

13 – Detroit W (47 – 10)     Detroit (0-14) really really stinks.

14 – Cleveland W (28 – 9)       Cleveland (4-10) stinks.

15 – Houston L (13-12)        Another loss, this to a non-playoff team.

From what I’m seeing, they have two quality wins (Baltimore and Indianapolis).  The games against the NFC North teams don’t count because that division is the NFL’s version of a Cripple Fight.  Two of them don’t have quarterbacks, the one that does has no defense, and the fourth is the Pittsburgh Pirates of football.  Every other game is either against a bottom 5 team or a loss.  Color me unimpressed.

After finally getting the monkey off their back by winning the Super Bowl, it appeared that the Indianapolis Colts would be following a pattern similar to other recent winners. They would struggle the next season then see head coach Tony Dungy retire so he could return to the NFL after a few years with a much more lucrative contract. The offense would still be the heart of the team but they’d eventually seek to replace some of their aging skill position stars with younger and cheaper alternatives. The first part held true but the others didn’t as Dungy continues to coach the team and the Colts are still sticking with the Manning-Wayne-Harrison Trifecta.

Despite competition from an improving Tennessee squad and usually tough Jacksonville, the Colts managed to maintain superiority in the AFC South last year. This year, however, they stumbled out of the gate and are currently behind the eight-ball being stuck behind a Titans team which remains undefeated. Barring a monumental collapse, it looks like Indy’s only hope for a playoff spot will be as a Wild Card. They currently sit at 4-4 meaning realistically they can only afford two more losses for those hopes to remain realistic. Otherwise, this may very well be the swan song season for many of the old guard as Dungy, DE Dwight Freeney, and probably WR Marvin Harrison are nearing the end of their run.

STEELER DEFENSE vs. COLTS OFFENSE

I’m sure we all know the “no huddle” offense the Colts use as the sight of QB Peyton Manning waving, signaling, hopping on one leg, doing the hokey pokey and turning himself around is one sadly familiar to Steeler fans. One of the beauties of Peyton’s ability to audible is that it allows the Colts to run a pretty simple scheme if the players can understand the audibles. They usually keep the WR’s in the same positions with Harrison out wide right, Reggie Wayne out wide left, and Anthony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark in the slot. Occasionally, if they get in some tight games and the offense can’t get going they’ll start motioning the receivers to see if they can fool the defense but this is essentially an offense that believes that Peyton can get them into the right play and then they can just out execute the opponent.

Obviously, this puts the onus on Peyton Manning to make the whole machine run. You can directly attribute Indy’s early season struggles with Manning’s sub-par play. He had two knee surgeries this off-season and missed the entire preseason. He came back rusty, out-of-synch with his receivers, and badly immobile. Peyton was never to be confused with Kordell Stewart but with today’s pass rushers, you need to have some niftiness in the pocket or you’ll never complete a pass. One of the reasons Manning was one of the most durable QBs of this generation is he was always mobile enough to avoid the big hit. His knee better be healed because with the most vicious pass rush in the NFL flying in at him from every angle, he better be able to duck and cover or he will take a beating.

Another of the issues that the Colts had was that Peyton was more or less the team’s O-Coordinator. While he usually calls the right play, he had some problems that your typical O-Coordinator has, particularly with falling in love with the pass. Unfortunately, the Colts didn’t have anybody in place to “veto” some of Peyton’s play calling and get him into the run. The year they won the Super Bowl, Peyton finally realized that the Colts needed to run the ball in the red zone because teams like the Patriots were looking for the pass in those situations. Again, the problem with the team this year is every one of their backs has missed time due to injury.

They should have Joseph Addai this week. He’s a vicious runner who catches passes well and got better and better in pass protection. He’s probably one of those guys that will be underrated for awhile given the small market city he plays in which is already occupied by the big stars. Then again, he’s going against the Steeler D which absolutely positively won’t let anybody run the ball on them anywhere ever. So I’d like to say they should utilize him but I don’t think he’s going to be able to do much of anything this week.

If Harrison’s knee is healthy, he’s one of the best WRs in the game. Big “if” because it appears that injury still nags him to this day. Reggie Wayne went from outstanding #2 to really the Colts top WR now. Wayne is extremely fast and has great hands which are a rare combination. Anthony Gonzalez did struggle with his route running and learning the audibles, but still ranked first in the league in DVOA for WR’s. Gonzalez took the Brandon Stokely third/slot receiver slot. He’s a good one although he gets a case of the dropsies here and there. TE Dallas Clark frequently lines up as a wide receiver. He’s deadly on screen passes although he can run deeper routes if they see a mismatch they can exploit.

I was worried last week about S Tyrone Carter replacing Ryan Clark but it really didn’t seem to matter. CBs Ike Taylor and Deshea Townshend completely shut down the Redskins wideouts although I think the Colts are a bit more talented and have a better QB getting them the ball. Of course, that won’t matter much if he’s flat on his back which is where I expect the Blitzburgh D to put him many times on Sunday.

STEELER OFFENSE vs. COLTS DEFENSE

Two guesses. Tampa 2/Cover 2 used here as that is the pet defense Dungy has loved since his days down in Tampa. A love he passed on to one of his protégés, a charismatic young man by the name of Mike Tomlin.

The Tampa 2 can be a good scheme with the right personnel although it is a pretty conservative defense outside of Dungy’s love for stunting his D-Line. The D-Line’s priority is to get to the QB and then worry about the run later. This appears to be the lucky week for the Colts as Pothole Willie Parker injured his shoulder on Monday and will not play. We still have the best bargain basement RB ever, Mewelde Moore, to shoulder (*groan*) the load. Can Moore keep up his string of impressive relief performances?

S Bob Sanders is the Troy Polamalu of their defense; the player who makes the whole thing work. In fact, he’s probably even more valuable as Troy takes the Steelers from very good to great but Sanders is singly responsible for making a below average defense decent. He’s constantly getting injured, though which makes me think maybe some day he’ll learn how to tackle correctly instead of trying to spear everybody.

Despite the Colts taking the mold of a typical Cover 2 defense (small in size, big on speed), this was an extremely physical defense in 2007 and it started with the attitude of Sanders and the rest of their physical defensive backs. Of course, the Steelers receivers know a thing or two about physical play so it should be interesting to see who blinks first when they get smacked in the mouth. I’m sure Herr Goodell has a bowl of popcorn and his dvd player ready to comb through the game tape to look for more ways to fine the Steelers.

If Dwight Freeney is healthy and returns to his old form, then their D-Line is a force to be reckoned with since Freeney is so tough to stop. Problem is that he suffered a bad foot injury and the way I understand it, it’s not too big of an issue if you’re very young but at Freeney’s age he’s unlikely to ever be the same. Ed Johnson was a hell of a find as he was a full season starter despite being undrafted. Raheem Brock had a pretty solid year as well.

The big question for the Steelers will be who will be behind that porous offensive line running for their life when the clock is started on Sunday. As of posting this, the question is very much up in the air. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t practiced all week although he is reportedly going to take some snaps on Friday. If he doesn’t feel like his arm is about to fall off, they’ll probably give him the start although I still think that’s a huge mistake. Big Ben is significantly down this year from last in every significant statistical category. He’s clearly not right. Will one week off make a huge difference? I don’t know. But if you know a guy is injured and even question a little how effective he’ll be, I don’t see the point in letting him start. Byron Leftwich isn’t a long-term solution by any means. However, this game against this opponent this week, he very well might be our best chance for victory.

Despite making the transition from long time head coach Bill Cowher to first time head coach Mike Tomlin, the Steelers had a solid freshman campaign in 2007 led by a stingy, attacking defense, a good running game, and quality QB play from Ben Roethlisberger.

However, the team went 3-5 down the stretch and repeatedly played poorly when matched against other quality teams.  Those three wins came against the Dolphins, Bengals, and the Rams, who combined for a 13-35 record last season.  The loss of superstar RB Willie Parker can’t be entirely to blame as he wasn’t lost until week16.  Facts are, the Steelers played like one of the NFL’s elite teams in the first half of the year, taking advantage of a softer schedule, then stumbled through the second half when injuries and quality of opposition began to catch up with them.

Let’s break the team down into three areas (Offense, Defense, and Special Teams/Coaching) and preview what to look forward to in 2008.

Part I:  The Offense

Projected Starters:

QB: Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall
FB: Carey Davis
WR: Santonio Holmes
WR: Hines Ward
TE: Heath Miller
LT: Marvel Smith
LG: Chris Kemoeatu
C: Justin Hartwig
RG: Kendall Simmons
RT: Willie Colon

The loss of Ken Wisenhunt to Pittsburgh West (Phoenix) led to an even more productive year under new O-Coordinator Bruce Ariens, an offensive assistant with the team since 2004. The Steelers pounded the ball with the run and then used play action, short routes to Hines Ward and Heath Miller, and occasionally went deep over the top to emerging star Santonio Holmes. It’s a simple scheme/philosophy that I prefer and the Steelers have the talent suited for it given their running game, their speed at receiver, and Roethlisberger’s ability to throw the deep ball.

These days when you think of the Steelers offense you think of Roethlisberger given he’s the biggest offensive name they have. Early in his career the Steelers wanted to limit his throws and he was basically a one read QB, then he would scramble and make plays if that read wasn’t open. They did like to throw the ball early on with Big Ben, then run the clock out in the second half. Here’s a look at Roethlisberger’s pass attempts per games started throughout his career:

2004……………22.7
2005……………22.3
2006……………31.3
2007……………26.9

So it’s obvious the Steelers are getting more comfortable with him throwing the ball more often. A lot of idiots in the national media undervalue Roethlisberger, frequently heaping undeserved praise on lesser talents like Tony Romo or Carson Palmer, while Ben chugs along with a career 92.5 QB rating and career .700 winning percentage. He throws a pretty accurate ball and has a good arm, and his strength and elusiveness in the pocket has saved the Steelers countless sacks and led to many big plays.

However, his biggest issue is that he gets sacked quite often, 93 times in the past two seasons. Sure our atrocious line is mostly at fault but Ben is also not the greatest reader of defenses.  Coupled with his overconfidence that he can escape any jam, some of those sacks he saves he gives right back because of his tendency to hold on to the ball a bit too long. 

I like Willie Parker a lot. He’s not a great between-the-tackles runner, but he puts up an effort and is better than most given a guy with his speed. He’s also a capable blitz pickup and receiver out of the backfield. I’d imagine the injury would slow him down a bit, but as per usual the Steelers do a great job of picking up somebody in the draft who will flourish. I liked Mendenhall quite a bit out of Illinois. The big thing that should hold him back as a rookie is blitz pickup, which most rookies struggle with and with Big Ben’s weakness in recognizing blitzes, they’ll probably keep him away from passing downs early on.  But now that they have a Mr. Inside (Rashard) and a Mr. Outside (Fast Willie), their running game might be the best it’s been in over a decade.

Hines Ward gets more name recognition, but Santonio Holmes is the better receiver. Ward finished 33rd in DPAR last year to Holmes’ 11th. Holmes is a rare receiver because he’s great at getting the YAC and can burn defenders deep. Ward is pretty much a short route receiver these days as he only averaged 10.3 yards a catch in the Pittsburgh scheme which likes to throw the ball deep. Heath Miller is a greatly underrated TE who finished 4th in DPAR last season. He’s also a great blocker. The only thing preventing Miller from being a Tony Gonzalez type of TE is his lack of speed. Still, this is a pretty solid group of receivers.

The O-Line was a mess as they really missed C Jeff Hastings and couldn’t find a suitable replacement in undersized Sean Mahan. They’ll want to give the starting center position to Justin Hartwig, who was a bust for the Panthers, and I can’t see him losing the job unless his left leg gets replaced by a broomstick and he gets a role in the next “Pirates of the Carribean” movie. Marvel Smith has been a solid left tackle over the years, although was lost last year to a serious back injury which often signals the end of a career.  He has looked pretty good so far in the preseason but we’ll have to see how he holds up over a 16 game schedule.  Willie Colon beat out Max Starks at right tackle and appears to once again have the inside track for the job this year, despite Starks having the Transition tag slapped on him making him the team’s 2nd highest paid player.  Kendall Simmons is more or less serviceable. They let Alan Faneca go, mainly due to the organization being ridiculously cheap bastards not giving out big contracts to players in their 30′s.  Faneca’s play did appear to drop off last year, so perhaps the decision was a wise one.