You can always trust Kimmy's picks.

It’s that time of year again when I gaze into my crystal ball and pull out sure to be inaccurate predictions for the NFL season that is upon us.  I’d like to say that there is an in depth statistical analysis that goes into my picks but it’s so much more than that.  There are also my deep rooted biases and a hefty amount of guessing that goes into it as well.  When it all comes down to it, those “analysts” that get paid to do this are pretty much guessing as well.  There’s no way to know who’s going to get injured, who else is getting suspended, and who is just going to tank.  Not since the Patriots in 2003 has the team with the best regular season record hoisted the Lombardi Trophy surrounded by confetti that same February.  Just as the Packers and Giants from last season can tell you, it’s all about getting hot at the right time.  So without further ado, here go my predictions sure to go wrong team by team for the 2012 NFL season. (more…)

Nice to know Dino Tomlin was as confused by the onside kick as most of Steeler Nation.

If the Pittsburgh Steelers wish to defend their Super Bowl championship in the postseason, they must win their two remaining games.  Step one of that plan puts them on a collision course with the Baltimore Ravens .   People forget that in 2006, even with the horrid 2-6 start, the Steelers rallied in the second half of the season to have an outside shot at the playoffs.  Those dreams were soundly crushed by the Ratbirds in the second to last game of the season.  Let’s hope history doesn’t repeat itself on Sunday.

Since we’re all too familiar with the Ravens, I’ll give a brief offensive/defensive breakdown.   Defensively, Baltimore is a perfect example of why I caution people not to blame injuries for the Steelers poor play.   They’ve had numerous players go down in their secondary to the point they just resigned Corey Ivy, who was a Steeler for about thirty seconds about a month back.   Considering the Ratbirds played almost an entire season without their best defensive player (and Hines Ward‘s favorite victim), Ed Reed, it’s amazing they’re still a top ten pass defense.  In fact, despite losing a number of key players, they’re second in the league in fewest points given up per game.  Injuries are never an excuse for sucking.

Offensively, Baltimore depends heavily on emerging superstar RB Ray Rice.  Rice is a dual threat running the ball and catching passes out of the backfield and when he gets on track, the Ravens usually roll.  QB Joe Flacco hasn’t exactly had a sophomore slump but he’s still more of a game manager at this point.   Of course, it doesn’t help that the Ravens are very thin at wide reciever with only old man Derrick Mason as a major gamebreaking threat.

When these teams last met, it marked the beginning of the death spiral which derailed the Steelers entire season.  Ben Roethlisberger came down with “concussion related headaches” out of nowhere, prompting him to bail on his team at the last minute.   Hines was interviewed by Hobbit Costas and threw his QB under the bus on national television.   First time starter Dennis Dixon came off the bench to perform above and beyond the call of duty.  Behind a running game that rushed 38 times for 156 yards, Dixon played well enough to pull the team ahead 17-14 with about five minutes left.  Of course, the Origami Curtain pissed away the lead and Dixon’s only stupid mistake cost them the game in OT.

This time, Big Ben will be on the field, fresh off his epic 500 yard passing performance against the Green Bay Packers.  Somehow, I doubt we’ll run the ball 38 times on Sunday.   Actually, despite the statistical evidence, I may be in favor of rolling out the Flying Circus since the Ratbird secondary appears to be their most vulnerable area.  Ben will once again be without the protection of LG Chris Kemoeatu, who is nursing a variety of ailments.  He’ll also have a new target in veteran Joey Galloway.  Galloway, who played well for Tampa last year but was cut by the Patriots earlier this season when he ended up in Brady’s doghouse, takes the place of uber-bust Limas Sweed.   Sweed is gone for the season with a “non football-related illness.”

Good job, Limas.  Dude can’t catch a pass but somehow manages to catch swine flu.  Or the clap.

Defensively, FREE AT LAST!!  Yes, Mike Tomlin has finally figured out that Will.i.am Gay is possibly the worst CB ever to wear the Black and Gold and has removed him from the starting lineup. Only about twelve weeks too late in my book.  Surprisingly, the man taking his place is ninety-seven year old Deshea Townshend.   I guess Joe Burnett still needs a little more time in the oven.  Somebody get Dick LeBeau a microwave, please!  Anyway, Gay will go back to playing in nickel packages, where he appeared semi-competent last year.

Finally, my Christmas wish went unfulfilled as Troy Polamalu will not be suiting up for this game.  He underwent an MRI hoping to be cleared but it appears the results were not as positive as we all had hoped.  He remains determined to get back on the field for the Miami game, although I’m beginning to doubt we’ll see his Head ‘N Shoulders fortified locks again this season.  Perhaps that’s for the best.

I know many of my loyal readers live outside of the ‘Burgh.  As such, you may not have the chance to watch this game because of the NFL’s stupid coverage rules.  However, you can still contribute to the Steelers cause by rooting for the teams they need to win to help their playoff chances.  We caught a break on Christmas when San Diego dropped coal in the Titans stocking, eliminating them from the race.   Here’s what else we want.   Miami knocking off Houston.  The Patriots beating the Jags.  Indy dumping the Jets.  And, hold your nose for this one, Philly defeating the Broncos.  Yes, we must root for those illiterate mouthbreathers back east.

I know…  I feel dirty, too.

Legendary Steelers coach Bill Cowher announced on CBS’s Sunday Pregame Show that he will not return to the sidelines in 2009. Instead he plans on spending another year trying to decipher the Captain Caveman-like mumblings of Shannon Sharpe. This news is no doubt a shattering blow to pretty much every franchise that missed the playoffs and/or just plain sucks and thinks The Chin is the man to save them.

The past week saw Cowher linked to every coaching vacancy and even a few jobs which aren’t currently vacant. It began with the Cleveland Browns making an overture to which Bill responded LOL. Memo to Cleveland: the man wants to WIN and everybody knows the Browns will never win anything. Then the New York Jets put him on their wishlist. ESPN had a crawl all day Thursday noting “Cowher and the Jets show mutual interest.” This interest was so mutual that Cowher rejected their interest the next day, having not even bothered to MEET them. Only in NY do people seem to think everybody is just dying to be used and abused by their ignorant disloyal fans and douchebag media.

In any case, Cowher did leave the door open by saying he will re-evaluate his retirement on a year-by-year basis. So next year when the axe falls on a half dozen inept coaches the day after the season ends, expect to hear Chris Mortenson, Jay Glazer, and that Crypt Keeper-looking dude on ESPN bring up his name in connection with every opening. And also expect every blog or fansite which follows a lousy team to keep bringing his name up as the one true savior who can come along and make everything right again.

Here’s hoping he stays retired. No need to ruin his legacy by coming back to a bad situation like Kansas City or Jacksonville and then stumbling through several good but not great seasons before becoming a victim to the unrealistic expectations of the fans.

Besides, Joe Pa can’t stick around forever. Who wouldn’t want to see The Chin lead his Nittany Lions on to the field down in Happy Valley?

Wild Card Weekend Playoff Wrap-Up

Pittsburgh West Cardinals over Falcons 30-24: The Cards were playing possum the past month as a string of phoned in performances were replaced by an amped up intensity which the young Falcons couldn’t match. Former Pitt superstar WR Larry Fitzgerald made an incredible 42 yard TD catch for the first score of the game and Atlanta simply couldn’t keep up when the game turned into a shoot-out. NFL Rushing Leader Michael Turner was bottled up and Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan had several rookie moments as the Card advanced to face the Carolina Panthers next week.

Chargers over Colts 23-17 (OT): The best game of the weekend ended with yet another early playoff exit by the underachieving Colts and undeserving NFL MVP Peyton Manning. The Colts have made the playoffs something like 8 straight years but been one-and-done in half of them. In fact, if not for Steve McNair outchoking Pey-Pey back in 2006, he could very well be football’s version of A-Rod (minus the purple lipstick and washed up pop star girlfriend). I’ll have more on the Chargers later this week as they come to Pittsburgh for an AFC Divisional Playoff game.

Ravens over Dolphins 27-9: Baltimore laid a total whuppin’ on Goldie Hawn’s favorite team, utterly exposing Chad Pennington and humbling the Fins in Miami. Pennington threw 4 picks, topped off by one being returned 64 yards for a TD by notorious ballhawk Ed Reed. Former Pitt recruit Joe Flacco became the first rookie QB to win a road playoff game as his steady play aided by an excellent running attack advanced them forward to a rematch with the top seeded Tennessee Titans next Saturday in Nashville.

Eagles over Vikings 26-14: Minny QB Tarvaris Jackson proved overmatched for the Eagles defense while superstar RB Adrian Peterson was held mostly in check (except for a 40 yard TD scamper, he was pretty well contained). Donovan McNabb made enough big plays, mostly set up by the return abilities of WR Desean Jackson, to put the Eagles ahead. RB Brian Westbrook sealed the deal with a 71 yard TD which began as a 3 yard screen but he took all the way to the end zone. Philly heads to the Meadowlands next week for a third game against their hated divisional foe New York Giants.

There’s an old saying that you should “believe none of what you hear and only half of what you see” and that old adage applies very well to the National Football League. The Baltimore Ravens typified that saying in 2007 as it appeared that they finally had developed an efficient offense by finally finding a quality starting quarterback in Steve McNair.  They wound up giving head coach Brian Billick a four year extension and, despite losing to the Colts in the playoffs, felt they were a team on the rise after going 13-3.  But the reality was the Ravens were a team that was once again being carried by their defense and McNair more or less managed the game. By 2008 there were issues on the defense, particularly the loss of LB Adalius Thomas, trouble at cornerback, and other injuries mostly related to the advancing age of their core players. This meant that the defense was downright mediocre at times. McNair also got hurt, which meant Kyle Boller and Troy Smith time as the season spiraled down the drain.  They finished 5-11 and Billick wound up getting fired.

The Ravens surprised a lot of people by hiring one of the best special teams coaches in the league, John Harbaugh.  With limited coaching experience, Harbaugh is a very unknown commodity.  But the same could be said of a local guy by the name of Mike Ditka, who came to the Chicago Bears as a special teams coach with Dallas.  While the Bears had a great defense, they didn’t reach the pinnacle of their success until the offense became more than simply manageable.   The hope is Harbaugh can make the same improvements in Baltimore.

STEELER DEFENSE VS. RAVENS OFFENSE

There’s another old saying that “imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.”  The Ravens sacrificed their 1st round pick next year to move up and draft QB Joe Flacco.  Flacco was a redshirt at Pitt who transferred to greener pastures when he couldn’t beat out the mighty Tyler Palko for the starting job.  Then again, talent evaluation and optimal player usage aren’t exactly hallmarks of Wannastache’s tenure with the Panthers.  Flacco is every bit a clone of Ben Roethlisberger given his size and his ability to move a little and throw on the move.  I’d say Big Ben is more athletic and effective throwing while on the run (he’s had enough practice) but Flacco definitely has a bigger arm.

Flacco has made rookie mistakes but he’s shown a remarkable learning curve and while it’d be unrealistic to think he’d replicate Ben’s 15-1 rookie season, he definitely gives the Ravens their best chance at winning right now.   Still, he’s young and Steeler defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau loves young quarterbacks.   Not in the Michael Jackson sort of way.   He just loves to throw a wide array of looks, stunts, and assorted trickery at the noobs because at that point in their careers, they aren’t equipped to read the defenses and make adjustments.  Unless Flacco turns out to be a prodigy, he’s going to have a long night trying to figure out who’s coming, how many, and from where.

Cam Cameron is the offense coordinator and while I’m not a big Cameron fan, his scheme and philosophies will probably be a breath of fresh air for the Ravens. Gone is the slant happy, dink and dunk West Coast Offense and in comes a more explosive deep pass pattern offense. Expect Todd Heap to play a bigger role in the passing game as they will try to get him to attack the deep middle.

Long time left tackle and future Hall of Famer, Jonathan Ogden has retired. Ogden was built like the perfect left tackle as he was 345 pounds but not the least bit overweight as he stood 6’9” tall. He had great feet, quality technique, and good power to be an excellent drive blocker.  Their money is on second year man Jared Gaither to take over for Ogden. He was a supplemental draft pick for the team and did pretty well in limited time as a rookie.  Ben Grubbs was very good at guard in his rookie season and will likely only get better and perhaps become a top 5 guard in due time. Marshal Yanda is average at best as he beat out Adam Terry at right tackle, which isn’t something to brag about.

If he can stay healthy, WR Demeterius Williams is a player to watch out for. This guy has tremendous athletic ability and can catch the ball.  Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton are pretty solid players provided the QB gets them the ball. Mason had 103 receptions last year, but only at 10.3 yards a catch which means he wasn’t very explosive.  Steeler CBs have shown solid coverage skills this season and there’s no reason to think they’ll have a hard time with this group, especially with injured starter Deshea Townshend healthy enough to at least play in the nickel.

RB Willis McGahee is a beast and given all of the injuries the Ravens had on the O-Line last year, his 1,207 rushing yards on 4.1 yards per carry is better than it looks. He’ll be backed up by rookie Ray Rice, who hasn’t shown much of anything so far this year.  I always thought Rice would be best suited to being a Mike Alstott-style fullback and his demonstrated lack of speed and elusiveness seems to have proven me correct.

The Steeler defense will be playing with a decimated defensive line as everybody’s favorite Fatass, Casey Hampton, is experiencing crotch pain, the kind antibiotics don’t help.  We all knew they were an aging group and with age comes increased injury problems.  That’s why it was so smart of Director of Player Personnel Kevin Colbert to draft a couple young DL in last year’s…

Oh yeah.  Never mind.

DE Brett Keisel will be out for at least another week which to be fair didn’t hurt the Steelers too much against Philadelphia.  DE Travis Kirschke played capably in relief of Keisel while NT Chris Hoke had a solid game when he came in for Hampton.  Hopefully they’ll be able to fill their roles as space eaters and allow our tremendously athletic linebackers to run around making plays all over the field.  The Ravens would no doubt love to establish a physical presence and a running attack early on and it’ll be up to the big boys up front to stop that from happening.

STEELER OFFENSE VS. RAVENS DEFENSE

The Ravens use a 3-4 scheme, but it’s a 1 gap scheme instead of the standard 2 gap. The Cowboys use this as well as Wade Phillips pretty much invented it while coaching under father, Bum. In many ways, it’s kind of like a modernized version of the old 46 defense. They will play some 4-3 scheme and just move Terrell Suggs to defensive end as defensive coordinator Rex Ryan definitely follows in his father’s footsteps by loving to bring the blitz.

The down linemen are about as good as it gets, starting with the incredibly underrated Kelly Gregg. He’s not that big of a guy for a nose guard (300 pounds) but he’s got a great motor and good technique. In the 1 gap scheme size is less important and he’s an even more tenacious defender. Haloti Ngata is a behemoth who wreaked havoc at defensive end last year. They’ll move him to nose tackle or defensive tackle in the 4-3 from time to time. Trevor Pryce got injured last year, but he’s always been a quality player who registered 13 sacks back in 2006.

The linebackers are still pretty good in Baltimore. Terrell Suggs has always been a quality pass rusher at the outside linebacker spot. Bart Scott is quite the beast at inside linebacker, even if he does chuck a referee’s flag. And Ray Lewis is still an above average inside linebacker, no matter how many homicides he commits. Where they saw problems last season was at the strongside outside linebacker spot as the level of production dipped greatly from Adalius Thomas, who left for New England, to Jarrett Johnson.

The Ravens are going to be stout against the run.  They have the size and speed to plug the gaps and prevent a running back from getting to that second level.  Fast Willie Parker sprained his knee late in the debacle in Philly and won’t play.   It’s time for rookie RB Rashard Mendenhall to put on his big boy pants and show us what he can do.

The good news is, his power style running might be better suited to this sort of game.  The bad news is, if Rex Ryan looked at tapes from last week, he’s going to be keen on selling out to stop the run.  At least until the Steelers offensive line can prove they can keep Ben Roethlisberger vertical long enough to complete a pass.

This is the key to the game because the Ravens cornerback play was miserable last year, although they’re leading the league in total defense so far this season. Chris McAllister, whom I swear has been around since the first Bush administration, got hurt last year and the Ravens couldn’t come anywhere near replacing him. Samari Rolle is hurt and will be replaced by Corey Ivy who is a good nickel back, but when placed in the starter’s role has not done well.  The Ravens do have an excellent safety with Ed Reed being….well, Ed Reed. When Reed is on, he’s easily the best safety in the league.   But when Reed is off his game, well, that’s when he becomes Hines Ward’s bitch.

If Ben isn’t busy running for his life, our receivers could enjoy a very productive night against that Baltimore secondary.   However, they harassed and disrupted Cleveland last week to the point they only surrendered 10 points and watching that gaping black hole that is our O-line last week, I’m not confident we won’t suffer a similar fate.

With a win, the Ravens will take a commanding two game lead in the AFC North division.  Yes, you read that right.   Before the season began, I thought there was a small chance they could be a Fab Four team.   Fab Four teams refer to the fact every season for the past ten years, four teams that missed the playoffs the previous year were in them the next.  The Ravens have a solid defense, solid running game, and a solid corps of receivers.  If their young quarterback can manage the game and make the throws when he needs to make them, I can see this team in the playoffs.  In fact, when I made my preseason Power Ranks for FSB, I thought they were a better pick than those trendy Cleveland Browns.  I guess we’ll see how much they’ve improved this Monday night.