You can always trust Kimmy's picks.

It’s that time of year again when I gaze into my crystal ball and pull out sure to be inaccurate predictions for the NFL season that is upon us.  I’d like to say that there is an in depth statistical analysis that goes into my picks but it’s so much more than that.  There are also my deep rooted biases and a hefty amount of guessing that goes into it as well.  When it all comes down to it, those “analysts” that get paid to do this are pretty much guessing as well.  There’s no way to know who’s going to get injured, who else is getting suspended, and who is just going to tank.  Not since the Patriots in 2003 has the team with the best regular season record hoisted the Lombardi Trophy surrounded by confetti that same February.  Just as the Packers and Giants from last season can tell you, it’s all about getting hot at the right time.  So without further ado, here go my predictions sure to go wrong team by team for the 2012 NFL season. (more…)

The Pittsburgh Steelers travel out to the Show Me State this weekend to take a gander at the new look Kansas City Chiefs.  Unfortunately for long-suffering Chiefs fans, what they’ll see is more of the same losing football they’ve seen for more than a decade.  KC is a text book example of how not to run a franchise.  Unless you’re trying to run it into the ground.  The Chiefs have won exactly four of their past thirty four games and that trend doesn’t look like it’s about to reverse itself anytime soon.

Let’s start as we always do with the offensive side of the ball.  Their best weapon was TE Tony Gonzalez.  He was traded during the offseason because he wanted to play for a winner.  Then there is Larry Johnson.  Johnson put up incredible numbers for the Chiefs (on an incredible amount of carries) in two consecutive seasons.  He also displayed an O.J. Simpson-esque touch with the ladies as he was arrested on four separate occasions, all of them involving violence against women.  KC rewarded this misogynist with a 6 year $45 million contract.  Only after insulting his head coach on Twitter was he finally released a couple weeks back, eventually finding a new home with every criminal’s favorite hideout, the Bengals.

Although those players are gone, there are still plenty of mistakes on the team.  Following a season when he played exactly one month of decent football, the Chiefs traded for Patriots backup Matt Cassel.  Before taking a single snap, they rewarded Cassel with a 6 year $63 million deal.  Geniuses.  Of course, the only remotely decent WR he has to throw to is Dwayne Bowe. But Bowe will not play this Sunday because he’s sitting out a four game suspension for steroid use.  Todd Haley coached a high-powered Cardinals offense all the way to the Super Bowl last season but he’d have to be Miracle Max to improve on the 18 points per game average the team had last year.

For the Steelers, it appears to be all systems go on the offensive side of the ball.  Bruce Arians allegedly plans to rein in his Flying Circus in favor of a more balanced attack. I’ll believe that when I see it.  Still, a heavy dose of Rashard Mendenhall would be exactly what this team needs to get back on a winning track.  Especially since KC is ranked down near the bottom of the league in rush defense.

Which brings us to yet more bad news for the Chiefs.  Only 0-16 Detroit gave up more yardage last year as KC set a new record for futility by recording a total of only 10 sacks.  This year they’ve switched over to a 3-4 and used their first two draft picks on stud defensive prospects, Tyson Jackson and Alex Magee. They also took on more Patriots garbage by taking ancient LB (and former Steeler) Mike Vrabel in the Cassel trade and signing the equally ancient Zach Thomas away from the Cowboys. With no pass rush, the secondary got picked on last year and yet it’s probably the strength of this unit.

For the Steelers, there are injuries aplenty to worry about.  Troy Polamalu remains “questionable” but is definitely not playing Sunday.  Look, if we can’t beat the Chiefs without Troy, just forfeit the rest of the season because we’re done.  In other injury news, Travis Kirschke‘s sprained calf is now torn because Mike Tomlin is a filthy liar.  He did try some individual drills this week but evidently he’s still a few weeks away.  Shockingly, I’m okay with his absence because his backup (or the backup to the backup if you’re keeping score), Nick Eason, has done a fairly solid job.  Last year, the Steelers D sacked Cassel seven times as they dazed and confused him all afternoon. While he’s now a year more experienced, I still expect James Harrison and company to be after him like a school of sharks tasting blood in the water.

Although they say “Any Given Sunday” for a very legitimate reason, this weekend should be little more than a tune-up.  I expect a professional, tidy effort from the Steelers in taking care of business like good teams do when they play the dregs of the NFL.  Get in, get your win, and get out without anybody getting hurt.  Next week we have the first of two games against the Ratbirds which may very well decide our season.  No time like the present to start playing winning football.

Rashard, Reed, and Redemption.

The Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the San Diego Chargers once again Sunday night by a final score of 38-28. The thousands in attendance and the millions watching at home had to be absolutely tickled pink at the effort put forth by the Black and Gold. And I’m not just referring to the armbands, shoes, and special edition Terrible Towels worn yesterday in support of Breast Cancer Awareness Month. Despite a brutal fourth quarter which turned a blowout into a nail-biter, this was by far the team’s best showing this season.

Let’s start with Rashard Mendenhall. Steeler Nation has been tough on Rashard, I’ve been tough on Rashard, Mike Tomlin has been tough on Rashard. Two nice plays against Chicago had been the grand total of his meaningful output as a pro. Not anymore. Mendenhall rumbled for 165 yards on 29 carries and two TDs. He doesn’t have the darting elusive style of Willie Parker but he’s more in the mold of Barry Foster (for you older fans), an explosive power runner. He showed a quick burst getting through holes and then got loose on several long gains by breaking through would-be tacklers. I particularly loved his physical play, lowering his shoulder when being tackled and absolutely PANCAKING blitzing linebackers on passing plays.

We also have to give it up for the oft-criticized offensive line. They opened up huge holes for the running game and provided plenty of time for Ben Roethlisberger (23/33 for 333 yards) to throw the ball. In fact, the 3 sacks they gave up wouldn’t have happened if Ben threw the ball in a timely fashion. I hope everybody noticed how when the line takes a holding penalty or gives up a sack, 90% of the time it’s when Ben drops back, surveys the field, then decides to run around like a maniac instead of throwing it away. Anyhow, Chris Kemoeatu was an absolute beast out there while Max Starks, no doubt stocked up on antibiotics and hoping to impress Tila Tequila, squashed Shawne Merriman all game long.

Through the first three quarters of play, this game looked like a laugher. At halftime, the Chargers had only 7 minutes of offensive possession. By the third quarter, they only produced a little over 100 yards of total offense. Their supposedly fearsome running back duo of LaDainian Thomlinson (15 yards rushing) and Darren Sproles (16 yards receiving) were non-factors. All seemed right in the world.

After three quarters of dominance, it happened again. Toward the end of the quarter, Philip Rivers engineered a thirteen play 79 yard drive, ending with a 3 yard TD pass to Antonio Gates. The Chargers went to a no-huddle shotgun formation and the Steelers decided to blitz almost every play. I don’t know if our linebackers have lost a step or if our new CBs are slower than last year’s but once again they didn’t come close as Rivers picked them apart.

Then came the fourth quarter or as Steeler fans now know it, “The Nightmare Time.” Stefan Logan fielded a punt while surrounded by approximately 37 San Diego players which is like an ant trying to survive an avalanche. He had the ball ripped from his bosom and ran back for a touchdown. At this point, I defy you to say you didn’t feel like you just got junk-punched by James Harrison.

To their credit, the Steeler offense marched right back down the field to answer with a TD of their own.  Which should have salted the game away.  All that was left to do was play some prevent, run out the clock, get off the field, and pack up your baby oil and speedo for wrestling tomorrow.

Which would’ve been fine if the Steeler defense hadn’t decided to take the REST OF THE GAME OFF. I’m utterly shocked at how one of the best defenses in NFL history last season can struggle so much this year. The Chargers scored two quick touchdowns to cut the lead to a single score. And when I say quick, I’m talking Usain Bolt speed.  They went 67 yards on four plays. FOUR PLAYS!!! After being tricked by an on-side kick which Ryan Mundy all but dusted off and handed to the Chargers, they scored on a 54 yard drive in only 3 plays. THREE PLAYS! WHAT THE HELL!?!

The Steelers had no answer for Antonio Gates (9 catches 124 yards 2 TD). As I correctly guessed in my preview, Gates down the middle was going to be a problem because the secondary has struggled with that this season. Of course, Gates is a superstar and we’re missing Troy Polamalu but I didn’t think he’d be *that* much of a problem. Ryan Clark and Tyrone Carter handled him alright during the early part of the game. When SD went to shotgun formations, our safeties had to cover WRs, which left a LB to cover Gates. Lawrence Timmons is either way more hurt than he’s letting on or he stinks. He was beaten like a drum time and time and time again. It got so bad that toward the end of the game, Dick LeBeau had seen enough and asked Harrison to cover him. Now, Silverback was the Defensive Player of the Year but shouldn’t your scariest pass rusher, oh I don’t know, rush the quarterback?

In a blink of an eye, a 28-0 pasting turned into a 35-28 thriller. It felt like going to a Sandra Bullock movie and out of nowhere seeing Freddy Krueger disembowel some well-endowed blonde (who no doubt has mammograms on a regular basis, thanks to Breast Cancer Awareness). Luckily, the Chargers defense couldn’t stop a fly with a bazooka so the Steelers managed to drive the ball down the field while taking valuable time off the clock. Which set the stage for Redemption #2 as Skippy Reed booted what amounted to a game-winning FG from 46 yards out.

At this point in the season, I have no idea what to think about this team. This was a huge win because it kept the team confident and ensured Big Ben doesn’t get beer thrown at him on Monday Night Raw. The Patriots also did us a favor by defeating the overrated Ravens so we picked up a game in the AFC North standings. We’re not going to learn much next week when we play the Lions because, well, they’re the Lions. Although there were many many good things to take from this game, these fourth quarter collapses have gotten to be a nasty habit. A habit they need to break before it’s too late to redeem themselves.

Steelers Coach Mike Tomlin‘s weekly Q&A was interrupted by Old Saint Nick yesterday.  Actually, it was a beat writer by the name of Bill Di Fabio impersonating the jolly elf in what is evidently a yearly tradition.  Like any good mall Santa, Di Fabio apparently performed his duties after imbibing a generous quantity of spiked egg nog.  Allegedly his schtick amused ex-coach Bill Cowher but watching his incredibly lame attempts at humor make me applaud Tomlin’s decree that Santa will slide down press conference chimneys no more.

Yep, you can see how seriously we’re taking this week’s 2008 season finale against the Cleveland Browns.

Another reason I’m impressed with Tomlin is he obviously learns from history.  Last year, the Steelers had a meaningless game against the Baltimore Ravens the final week of the season.  He chose to rest all his starters and play only the B team.  This strategy paid off in a one-and-done playoff exit at the hands of the blind referees Jacksonville Jaguars.  Meanwhile the New York Giants, with a similarly meaningless game and facing a long three road game march through the playoffs, played all their starters in a valiant bid to ruin the Patriots’ perfect season which the did four weeks later in the Super Bowl.

With that in mind, Tomlin has said every able-bodied player will suit up and play this Sunday.  That means Ben Roethlisberger, Willie Parker, and James Harrison will likely all see action.  The only serious injury to a starter I’m aware of is S Ryan Clark, who has a separated shoulder and probably won’t return until the playoffs.  Obviously, I expect Harrison and Parker to be rotated with Lawrence Timmons and Mewelde Moore a bit more than usual but it doesn’t look like anybody will be getting the week off.

Not that we need an all-star lineup to deal with the Brownies.  They’re dealing with their own little incident this week when backup DE Shaun Smith decked smug metrosexual QB Brady Quinn.  They allege this incident took place in the weight room but personally, I suspect it began in the showers and had something to do with a soap being dropped.  But I could be wrong.

What I am right about is the Browns will be starting their fourth QB this year, Seton-La Salle High product Bruce Gradkowski.  With both Quinn and Derek Anderson out with season-ending injuries, Ken Dorsey has proven woefully ineffective even by Cleveland standards as they’ve failed to score a touchdown for something like four games.  Cue the Pittsburgh-native cavalry, who started 11 games for Tampa Bay as a rookie back in 2006, posting a rather pitiful 3-8 record (including a whooping by the Steelers where he tossed three picks).

My cousins, Lexi and Taylor, actually met Gradkowski a couple years back when he was giving motivational speeches to local middle schools.  Knowing I love football, they thoughtfully decided to ask for his autograph for me.  While I appreciate their sentiment, I expect my personalized Bruce Gradkowski rookie card will continue to be worth slightly less than my Kevin Polcovich signed mini-bat for many years to come.

Then again, this is Christmukkah.  The season of giving.  And everybody knows the spirit of giving is far more important than the actual product being gifted.  Or at least that’s what Christmas specials tell me.  So as I sit down on Sunday and watch the miserable Browns play this miserable game which means nothing to either team, I’ll remember to be thankful for all the joy and excitement the Steelers have given me this year.

And to all my readers, even those of you who never leave comments (I know who you are), thank you for reading and best wishes for Happy Holidays and a great New Year.

Revenge is a dish best served cold or, sometimes, wet. Playing in a steady downpour, the Pittsburgh Steelers crushed the New England Patriots 33-10 in their most dominating win of the season. The almost biblical rainstorm drenching the field was oddly symbolic as if the heavens above were trying to wash the rotten stink of Bill Belichick from the landscape of the NFL.

Make no mistake, this was the Steelers finest performance of the year. The Massholes, as is their modus operandi, will come up with 101 reasons why this game shouldn’t count but considering most of them weren’t aware they had a team until 2001, ignore their excuse-making. Why just last week those same dimwits were throwing their franchise QB overboard while anointing Matt Cassel the Chosen One. If that doesn’t show you the amount of ignorance we’re dealing with, Cassel’s sloppy and inept play should. Whatever terribly run franchise, I’m guessing the Detroit Lions, that empties the bank to sign this guy is going to be really disappointed when they discover their shiny new sports car is a lemon.

Cassel was coming off two 400 yard passing performances which led to the ridiculous level of hysteria surrounding his play. That those performances came against mediocre Miami and Jets (watch as everybody jumps off that bandwagon this week) defenses seemed to escape the no-nothing talking heads who are, you know, paid to analyze football. Granted, the Steeler defense isn’t your typical defense. It’s an unrelenting machine. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.

Where to begin with the beautiful violence displayed on Sunday afternoon. Defenders stormed in on Cassel from all angles, finishing the game with 5 sacks. James Harrison cemented his place as the BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER IN FOOTBALL adding 2 more sacks to his league leading total, both of which caused fumbles. LaMarr Woodley chipped in with one of his own while Casey Hampton, moments after being flagged for a ridiculous holding call, showed why you do not piss off the Fat Man by promptly squashing Cassel on the next play. Troy Polamalu was all over the field, dropping back and blitzing, culminating in a nice tip-INT to ice the game. Lawrence Timmons, who should be starting at this point, made a sweet pick out in coverage.

Words can’t describe how dominate this defensive performance was. The only score the feeble Patriot offense could manage was when they started at the Steelers 14 after a Ben Roethlisberger interception. They had 5 total yards in the 3^rd Quarter. They didn’t convert a third down until late in the 4^th. They had 122 rushing yards, about double the 66 which Pittsburgh had been allowing, but that’s misleading. For some reason, the Steelers went to a weird Cover-2/prevent type D late in the first half and the Pats used draws to rip off 55 yards on two runs. Ike Taylor continued to establish a reputation as an elite Shut Down Corner by limiting WR Randy Moss to 45 measly yards.

Of course, the most memorable play occurred in the third quarter when S Ryan Clark, who missed last year’s game, made sure the Patriots knew he was there by attempting to behead WR Wes Welker. The hit was like something out of “The Longest Yard” but without benefit of a highly trained stuntman. Clark was flagged for a personal foul despite the fact Santonio Holmes was lit up on almost an identical (unpenalized) play last week as the NFL continues their march toward turning into Flag Football. Clark will undoubtedly receive a fine from Fuhrer Goodell because, well, the NFL hates the Steelers. Members of Steeler Nation should start a fund for Ryan as I don’t know about you but that hit was totally worth something to me.

On the flip side, the Steeler offense actually showed a spark of life today. I’ve been monitoring the poll I have going on and I’m sad that so many people swallow what the media feeds them without examining the evidence. The offensive line is not a great unit by any means but they are far from the main culprit behind our woes. Big Ben was sacked only once against a pretty decent group of pass rushers while the running game piled up 161 yards which shows you they are a capable if unspectacular unit.  Injuries to the backfield, Ben holding on to the ball way too long, and our idiot Offensive Coordinator dialing up 30 yard pass plays in the face of jailbreak blitzes are a much bigger problem than any shortcomings along the line.

Case in point this game. Notice how the Steelers have began utilizing the bunch formation (when all the receivers are packed about 5 yards off the line) in order to facilitate a short, quick-hitting passing game. Notice how the TEs like Heath Miller, who led the team with 4 catches for 60 yards, have become a bigger part of the offense. Notice the commitment to the run as the Steelers have settled into a three pronged running attack with Mewelde Moore featured in the 1^st half, Willie Parker (showing good speed but questionable cutting) in the 2^nd half, and Gary Russell in short yardage situations. All these things combine for an offense which controls the clock, keeps downs and distances manageable, and keeps the defense off balance enough to prevent them from pinning their ears back on the pass rush.

Again, the Massholes will no doubt whine that Moss dropped a potential TD pass along with several other key throws during the course of the game. I counter by noting the Steelers left several TDs on the grass themselves. Santonio is playing like a man who doesn’t want to be here much longer as he dropped not one but two potential TDs and his loafing on a play almost led to an INT. If rookie Limas Sweed can blossom into a solid #3, he could be squeezed out with the rise of Tiffin Thunder Nate Washington, who has emerged this season and can be counted on for at least one or two big catches per game, although he did drop what would’ve been a back breaking bomb late in the game.

The Bungles bent over and grabbed their ankles for those pesky Baltimore Ravens so the Steelers maintain their slim one game lead in the division. The Purple Birds have the Washington Redskins next week at home which is a tough one to predict because on one hand the Skins are fighting for a playoff spot but on the other hand they haven’t played very well in recent weeks. Meanwhile, our old buddies the Dallas Cowboys come into town also fighting for a playoff spot. In any case, it’s looking more and more like the week 15 showdown in Charm City is going to be the tipping point for the entire year. If the Steelers can continue to play at the level they displayed this week, nothing short of a Silverback launching long snaps can stop them.