The Houston Texans got off to a surprising 2-0 start last year, looking solid with the addition of Matt Schaub at quarterback, Andre Johnson tearing up the league, and surprising newcomer Jacoby Jones making exciting play after exciting play. Defensively they still had problems, but rookie DL Amobi Okoye was better than they could’ve hoped and DeMeco Ryans was on his way to proving himself as possibly the best middle linebacker in the game. Unfortunately, the Texans couldn’t take it to the next level because like so many teams trying to get to the playoffs for the first time, they lacked any real depth if the starters went down, which this being the rough-and-tumble NFL, they inevitably did. Schaub, Johnson, Jones, and Ryans all missed time with injuries and the Texans sputtered to an 8-8 finish. Make no mistake, this is a team that has improved markedly under Coach Gary Kubiak but they will need more consistency, more depth, and a lot of luck if they harbor any hopes of finally competing with Indianapolis and Jacksonville for the AFC South.

STEELERS OFFENSE VS. TEXANS DEFENSE

The Texans are a 4-3 team that generally plays a lot of Cover 2 zone. They’ve made strides in developing the most important part of a Cover 2 scheme, the defensive line, but there’s still a ways to go.

The good news is that they appear to have two quality pass rushers on the D-line in Okoye and 2007 1^st overall pick Mario Williams. Williams actually got better and better as last season progressed and he will be one of the keys to the team’s success (or failure) this year. They are not afraid to move Williams around given his size and athleticism and if he can finally put together an entire season where he shows people why he went so high in the draft, the Texans defense would take a giant step toward respectability.

Unfortunately, Okoye and Williams are out on an island as they got nothing from anybody else last season. Neither Travis Johnson nor Anthony Weaver recorded a sack last year. Johnson got lost in old friend Dom Capers‘ 3-4 scheme coming into the NFL and has never recovered. He is also the infamous player who got a lot of heat for taunting an obviously hurt Trent Green last season. To me, Green was the real prick on the play, taking one of the worst cheap shots you can in an NFL game but because he got hurt and he’s a QB, the NFL wrote it off.

CB Dunta Robinson makes plays and is good enough to lock down on quality receivers but was injured in camp and not expected to play.  Jacques Reeves was known as “the most thrown at cornerback in the NFL” last season. Much like being the girl with her phone number written in the men’s bathroom stall or the odd geek in Harry Potter glasses who stands behind a Ficus at parties, that’s not a particularly good rep to have.

The Steelers, a running team now and forever, have been steadily moving toward a more wide-open style offense as QB Ben Roethlisberger matures. My gut feeling is Houston has the talent to clamp down on the running game, at least in the early going but will struggle mightily if Ben is given a lifetime to throw the bal.  Considering the play of the Steelers O-line this preseason, I don’t think they’ll have to worry about that.  It is going to fall to the Dynamic Duo of WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes to get open , catch the ball, and establish a lead. Holmes in particular should be primed for a big game as he should be matched against Reeves who loves to give 5-8 yard cushions to speedy receivers.

STEELERS DEFENSE VS. TEXANS OFFENSE

The Texans run the exact same type of offense as the Broncos run with Gary Kubiak being a longtime Bronco player and then offensive coordinator. You’ll see a lot of slants and short routes, but this is a West Coast offense that goes deep more often than you expect.

Matt Schaub will lead the attack as long as he’s healthy. Schaub is a big guy but has one of the weaker arms in the league, although as long as Chad Pennington is around tossing his knuckleballs he’ll stay off the bottom of the list. However, he can make enough of the throws and is very accurate. Plus, unlike former starter David Carr, he knows when to get rid of the ball and doesn’t piss his pants in fear when a pass rush is coming at him.

With a Broncos type of offense, you’re likely to see multiple tailbacks platooning. They have an interesting mix with Ahman Green for speed, Chris Brown for power, and  rookie Steve Slaton to do a little of everything. The only problem with their Poo Poo Platter Backfield is both Brown and Green are historically injury prone while Slaton carries on the fine tradition by recently missing time because his big toe is ouchie.  Both veterans have also had a problem with fumbles throughout their career which makes me wonder why they didn’t draft Rashard Mendenhall to complete the trifecta.

The strength of the offense, and probably of the team, is a solid to possibly explosive wide receiving corp. Jacoby Jones was dynamite in preseason, but got hurt early on and couldn’t do much. Andre Johnson has always been a nightmare for defensive backs because of his size (230 pounds) and speed (4.3 speed). However, he got hurt last year as well and may not be fully recovered. Andre Davis came in and had a great season given the situation. He would be in line to replace Johnson if Johnson can’t go. Owen Daniels is one of those decent receiving tight ends in a West Coast offense.

The wideouts also contribute to an excellent special teams unit. Davis was 2nd in the league in kickoff returns last season, with a tremendous 30.3 yards a return. Jacoby Jones did alright at 9.5 yards a punt return, but he was banged up all year long. He’s really more explosive than his numbers suggest. If Mike Tomlin hasn’t figured out how to shore up the atrocious special teams play that hurt the Steelers all last year, this game will definitely expose them.

The offensive line had its best season in the team’s history which isn’t saying much when previous years saw some of the absolute worst O-line play in NFL history. Still, like the Steelers, they’re a much better run blocking unit than pass blocking. In fact, last season they would often run on third and 5 (and succeed) rather than risk a pass. A key for the Steelers will be to get ahead and force Houston into a one-dimensional passing offense. Then defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau can turn the dogs loose on poor hapless Schaub. It’s a risk, though, because if for some reason they can’t get to the QB, the Texans receivers are a definite threat against pretty much any secondary in the league.

The game will be won in the trenches, both offensively and defensively. Whichever lines can assert their manhood more forcibly will take control of this game and eventually emerge with a win. I know with the Steelers absolutely brutal 2008 schedule it’s very easy to look past this game and on to bigger and better things but that would be a huge mistake. The Texans are not the pushovers they were in seasons past and anything less than a total concentrated effort and we’ll all be crying in our Irons on Monday morning.

Remember Bowling Green. This is the professional equivalent of that collossal failure. Let’s hope the Steelers were paying attention to that game as closely as all the suckers Pitt fans were.

That’s head coach Mike Tomlin basking in the afterglow of his first two picks in the 2008 NFL Draft. Tomlin and Director of Player Personnel Kevin Colbert have every right to be pleased with their work as the general consensus seems to be the Pittsburgh Steelers had themselves one of the finest hauls in this year’s draft. Scanning the interwebz, it appears many of the so-called “experts” graded our picks quite generously.

Jason Cole (Yahoo Sports) – A
Paul Zimmerman (SI.com’s Dr. Z) – Very Good
Larry Weisman (USA Today) – B+
Mel Kiper (Great Hair) – B
NPC (Me) – A

Wait, I gave our draft an A? Didn’t I say in my draft preview post that taking a running back like Jonathan Stewart would be a luxury pick? Didn’t I say a luxury pick is not something we can afford with so many pressing needs? Have I gone mad?

Not really. See, when you evaluate a team’s draft, you have to do so on a sliding scale. The teams picking early almost always have the “best drafts” because they pick the biggest name players. Of course, if those drafts were really the best, or if those big names always panned out, then the Detroits and Atlantas of the world wouldn’t be picking in the top 10 seemingly every year. As John Steinbeck would say, “…the best laid plans of Mice and Matt Millen…”

Mangling of classic English literature aside, I judge a draft by value. As in, what did pass up, what did you get, and what did you give up in getting what you got? By those criteria, the Steelers did a tremendous job this weekend.

Did the draft address our needs? Well, in a word, no. Our biggest needs were OL, WR, DL, and CB in that order. The Steelers only filled one of those four needs (WR). Looking at it that way, you’d think their draft was a total disaster. But this goes back to what I said about value. We passed up guys who’d fill our needs but didn’t have legit first round ability, we got players who are talented enough that most people think they should’ve went 10 to 15 picks sooner than when we got them, and we gave up nothing in order to draft them.

Pittsburgh could’ve gone a similar route as Carolina. The Panthers also needed help on the OL and when there was a run on linemen, they panicked and traded up to get Jeff Otah. As someone who saw him play in a few Pitt games this season, the idea of using one 1st round pick on Otah is questionable. Otah has raw talent and great measurables but he’ll definitely need a lot of coaching and is far from a complete package. Carolina, however, gave up not only several picks to draft him, but next year’s 1st as well. That’s far far too steep a price.

I’m glad the Steelers didn’t play that game. Gosder Cherilus and Sam Baker are nice players but they’re both 2nd round talent. Taking them in the first would’ve been dubious. Trading future draft picks to MOVE UP to take them would’ve been insane. Especially when legitimate first round talent was there to be had.

I don’t believe in drafting specifically to fill needs. That’s how you end up with Troy Edwards instead of Jevon Kearse. I firmly believe you take the best player available. Obviously, all things being equal, you try to fill your needs first but this year, things were not equal. Every offensive lineman of any ability, projected to go in the first OR second round, was gone by the time the Steelers picked at #23. What was sitting there was a running back who many considered the 2nd best back in the entire draft.

It’s a no-brainer.

Of course, like we learned with Huey Richardson, we’ll truly see how smart the Steelers are when these guys actually put on some pads and take the field.

3rd Round:

Pros: Good athlete with decent speed (4.78 sec in the 40). Outstanding quickness off the blocks and is a great closer. Scary as an edge rusher. Very active with a motor that does not stop. Rangy player who will make plays in pursuit. Has played both DE and OLB so can play from either up or down position. Very much in the mold of James Harrison, except he hasn’t backhanded any women (yet).

Cons: Like Harrison, considered to be undersized. Also a liability against the run as he struggles to hold his ground or get a push when being run blocked. One reason he fell is his strength measured well below average. Considered a one trick pony as a pass rush specialist who only dominates against weak opponents.

4th Round:

Pros: Huge man with ginormous frame and long arms. Considered a terrific athlete as he ran the 40 is 5.3 sec flat. Nifty feet with good balance and agility. Outstanding as a pass blocker. Is mobile and when put in space, is very good at lead blocking. Could possibly play guard. Thought to have quite a bit of upside potential.

Cons: Suffered a catastrophic knee injury in high school that required almost total reconstruction.  Obviously that was a while ago but still raises concerns over long term durability. Combine was disappointing as he didn’t measure very strong and doesn’t play with a lot of power. Seems to lack the killer instinct all top notch OL have. Isn’t stout at the point of attack and doesn’t get a great push so needs work on his run blocking. Plays too upright at times and his technique is a bit rough. Considered an underachiever in college whom the Steelers are no doubt hoping will eventually play up to his potential.

5th Round:

Pros: Outstanding athleticism. Played minor league baseball for the Atlanta Braves. Is probably one of the best pure athletes in the entire draft. Reminded many scouts of another Vince Young, which I guess belongs in the Pros but I leave that up to you. Mobile in the pocket and makes plays with his feet. Decent height with the body to put on some weight. Decent arm strength but a quick release who throws extremely well on the move. Was having an awesome Senior year where he was widely considered the front-runner for the Heisman Trophy when a torn ACL ended his season. The Steelers love converting this type of mobile QB into a WR and that is very likely the plan with Dixon. If it works out, could potentially be their best pick this year.

Cons: Health and durability are obviously a concern. Claims to have his ACL completely rehabbed but that’s a major injury which sometimes needs 2 years to fully heal. Needs to bulk up and add some weight if he wants to survive in the NFL. Didn’t play a pro style offense with the Ducks so there will be a learning curve if they expect him to compete for a backup QB position. Much like another #10 for the Steelers, he has poor mechanics, erratic accuracy, and questionable decision-making skills as a QB. As a WR, will have to learn route-running and technique basically from scratch. Also timed at 4.6 sec in the 40 which is good for a QB but not particularly fast for a wide out (although to be fair, he ran it in 4.46 sec prior to the injury).

6^th Round:

Mike Humpal LB Iowa

Height: 6-2^1/2
Weight: 244

Pros: Good size with a non-stop motor. A real ball-hawk as he’s always where the action is. Sure handed tackler. Plays stronger than his size in shedding blocks while remaining stout at the point of attack. Chad Brown-like in demeanor and playing style.

Cons: Not a great athlete. All his measurables, especially timed speed and quickness, are considered below average. Doesn’t have the best footwork so can be twisted around making him a liability in pass coverage. Will probably be a special teamer and a career backup as he’s a solid worker but doesn’t have much upside potential.

6^th Round:

Ryan Mundy S West Virginia

Height: 6-1
Weight: 205

Pros: Adequate size and weight for a safety. Sure tackler. Not afraid of delivering the big hit. A true playmaker with good hands and will make the pick if given the chance. Very active with a non-stop motor. Despite attending WVU, Mundy is a smart player who is seldom fooled or out of position. Will contribute to the special teams immediately and will probably push Tyrone Carter and Anthony Smith for the backup S position a couple seasons from now. Born and raised in Pittsburgh (Woodland Hills).

Cons: Does not have great timed speed and lacks a burst. If beaten, not fast enough to recover. Also isn’t strong enough to cover tight ends or jostle for position with bigger wide receivers. Does not have great measurables but could be a solid backup while also contributing on special teams. (more…)