After finally getting the monkey off their back by winning the Super Bowl, it appeared that the Indianapolis Colts would be following a pattern similar to other recent winners. They would struggle the next season then see head coach Tony Dungy retire so he could return to the NFL after a few years with a much more lucrative contract. The offense would still be the heart of the team but they’d eventually seek to replace some of their aging skill position stars with younger and cheaper alternatives. The first part held true but the others didn’t as Dungy continues to coach the team and the Colts are still sticking with the Manning-Wayne-Harrison Trifecta.

Despite competition from an improving Tennessee squad and usually tough Jacksonville, the Colts managed to maintain superiority in the AFC South last year. This year, however, they stumbled out of the gate and are currently behind the eight-ball being stuck behind a Titans team which remains undefeated. Barring a monumental collapse, it looks like Indy’s only hope for a playoff spot will be as a Wild Card. They currently sit at 4-4 meaning realistically they can only afford two more losses for those hopes to remain realistic. Otherwise, this may very well be the swan song season for many of the old guard as Dungy, DE Dwight Freeney, and probably WR Marvin Harrison are nearing the end of their run.

STEELER DEFENSE vs. COLTS OFFENSE

I’m sure we all know the “no huddle” offense the Colts use as the sight of QB Peyton Manning waving, signaling, hopping on one leg, doing the hokey pokey and turning himself around is one sadly familiar to Steeler fans. One of the beauties of Peyton’s ability to audible is that it allows the Colts to run a pretty simple scheme if the players can understand the audibles. They usually keep the WR’s in the same positions with Harrison out wide right, Reggie Wayne out wide left, and Anthony Gonzalez or Dallas Clark in the slot. Occasionally, if they get in some tight games and the offense can’t get going they’ll start motioning the receivers to see if they can fool the defense but this is essentially an offense that believes that Peyton can get them into the right play and then they can just out execute the opponent.

Obviously, this puts the onus on Peyton Manning to make the whole machine run. You can directly attribute Indy’s early season struggles with Manning’s sub-par play. He had two knee surgeries this off-season and missed the entire preseason. He came back rusty, out-of-synch with his receivers, and badly immobile. Peyton was never to be confused with Kordell Stewart but with today’s pass rushers, you need to have some niftiness in the pocket or you’ll never complete a pass. One of the reasons Manning was one of the most durable QBs of this generation is he was always mobile enough to avoid the big hit. His knee better be healed because with the most vicious pass rush in the NFL flying in at him from every angle, he better be able to duck and cover or he will take a beating.

Another of the issues that the Colts had was that Peyton was more or less the team’s O-Coordinator. While he usually calls the right play, he had some problems that your typical O-Coordinator has, particularly with falling in love with the pass. Unfortunately, the Colts didn’t have anybody in place to “veto” some of Peyton’s play calling and get him into the run. The year they won the Super Bowl, Peyton finally realized that the Colts needed to run the ball in the red zone because teams like the Patriots were looking for the pass in those situations. Again, the problem with the team this year is every one of their backs has missed time due to injury.

They should have Joseph Addai this week. He’s a vicious runner who catches passes well and got better and better in pass protection. He’s probably one of those guys that will be underrated for awhile given the small market city he plays in which is already occupied by the big stars. Then again, he’s going against the Steeler D which absolutely positively won’t let anybody run the ball on them anywhere ever. So I’d like to say they should utilize him but I don’t think he’s going to be able to do much of anything this week.

If Harrison’s knee is healthy, he’s one of the best WRs in the game. Big “if” because it appears that injury still nags him to this day. Reggie Wayne went from outstanding #2 to really the Colts top WR now. Wayne is extremely fast and has great hands which are a rare combination. Anthony Gonzalez did struggle with his route running and learning the audibles, but still ranked first in the league in DVOA for WR’s. Gonzalez took the Brandon Stokely third/slot receiver slot. He’s a good one although he gets a case of the dropsies here and there. TE Dallas Clark frequently lines up as a wide receiver. He’s deadly on screen passes although he can run deeper routes if they see a mismatch they can exploit.

I was worried last week about S Tyrone Carter replacing Ryan Clark but it really didn’t seem to matter. CBs Ike Taylor and Deshea Townshend completely shut down the Redskins wideouts although I think the Colts are a bit more talented and have a better QB getting them the ball. Of course, that won’t matter much if he’s flat on his back which is where I expect the Blitzburgh D to put him many times on Sunday.

STEELER OFFENSE vs. COLTS DEFENSE

Two guesses. Tampa 2/Cover 2 used here as that is the pet defense Dungy has loved since his days down in Tampa. A love he passed on to one of his protégés, a charismatic young man by the name of Mike Tomlin.

The Tampa 2 can be a good scheme with the right personnel although it is a pretty conservative defense outside of Dungy’s love for stunting his D-Line. The D-Line’s priority is to get to the QB and then worry about the run later. This appears to be the lucky week for the Colts as Pothole Willie Parker injured his shoulder on Monday and will not play. We still have the best bargain basement RB ever, Mewelde Moore, to shoulder (*groan*) the load. Can Moore keep up his string of impressive relief performances?

S Bob Sanders is the Troy Polamalu of their defense; the player who makes the whole thing work. In fact, he’s probably even more valuable as Troy takes the Steelers from very good to great but Sanders is singly responsible for making a below average defense decent. He’s constantly getting injured, though which makes me think maybe some day he’ll learn how to tackle correctly instead of trying to spear everybody.

Despite the Colts taking the mold of a typical Cover 2 defense (small in size, big on speed), this was an extremely physical defense in 2007 and it started with the attitude of Sanders and the rest of their physical defensive backs. Of course, the Steelers receivers know a thing or two about physical play so it should be interesting to see who blinks first when they get smacked in the mouth. I’m sure Herr Goodell has a bowl of popcorn and his dvd player ready to comb through the game tape to look for more ways to fine the Steelers.

If Dwight Freeney is healthy and returns to his old form, then their D-Line is a force to be reckoned with since Freeney is so tough to stop. Problem is that he suffered a bad foot injury and the way I understand it, it’s not too big of an issue if you’re very young but at Freeney’s age he’s unlikely to ever be the same. Ed Johnson was a hell of a find as he was a full season starter despite being undrafted. Raheem Brock had a pretty solid year as well.

The big question for the Steelers will be who will be behind that porous offensive line running for their life when the clock is started on Sunday. As of posting this, the question is very much up in the air. Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t practiced all week although he is reportedly going to take some snaps on Friday. If he doesn’t feel like his arm is about to fall off, they’ll probably give him the start although I still think that’s a huge mistake. Big Ben is significantly down this year from last in every significant statistical category. He’s clearly not right. Will one week off make a huge difference? I don’t know. But if you know a guy is injured and even question a little how effective he’ll be, I don’t see the point in letting him start. Byron Leftwich isn’t a long-term solution by any means. However, this game against this opponent this week, he very well might be our best chance for victory.

Winning cures all ills and the Cincinnati Bengals have typified that over the Marvin Lewis era. After the 2005 season, Lewis was praised as a savior for the Bengals organization despite his players’ constant run-ins with the law.  And if winning cures all the ills, losing amplifies all of the ills and after an 8-8 season in which the Bengals blew chance after chance to make the playoffs, gripes about Lewis’ coaching style started to surface. After a tumultuous 7-9 season in 2007, the honeymoon was clearly over and Lewis is probably in his last season with Cincinnati. Unless of course, he wins.

Unfortunately, this has all of the makings of a disaster season as the defense made the grave mistake of hiring Mike Zimmer to be the defensive coordinator. They also have the Chad Johnson fiasco, which likely will not end well. But for all of the talk of getting rid of Lewis, one has to wonder whom they will get to replace him and do a better job. Who will be good enough to work with a cheap owner in Mike Brown and take over a roster filled with criminals, troublemakers, and malcontents?

STEELER DEFENSE vs. BENGALS OFFENSE

QB Carson Palmer has been ruled out of the game.  So the duties will fall to 4th year back-up Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Fitz played his college ball at that football powerhouse, Harvard.   I might not know much about him but I’m guessing he can kick your ass on the S.A.T.s.  Speaking of which, he’s probably most famous for the urban rumor that he scored a perfect 50 on the Wonderlic test in only nine minutes thus beating Vince Young by 44 points.  I was recently given a chance to share my wealth of Steeler knowledge on a Bengal website so I’ll return the favor and give him a chance to tell us about this Ryan fellow.

Anyway, in two games he’s accumulated a stunning QB rating of 57.7 which is hard to believe because, like the S.A.T.s, you get 75 points just for showing up.  He’s thrown one TD pass this year despite having some decent receivers and no semblance of a running game so I wouldn’t be too optimistic about how he’ll fare against our PH.D of D Dick Lebeau and his exotic schemes.

The running game has been so bad that they went out and signed Party Animal Cedric Benson.  The Bears had enough of him after his 2nd DUI in as many months but evidently no crime is too horrible and no rap sheet is too long for the Bungles.  Benson hasn’t done much this year as he’s working himself back into game shape.  The nominal starter is Chris Perry, who the astute Cincinnati management liked so much they got rid of Rudi Johnson during the preseason.  Perry’s responded to being handed the job by stinking out the joint, fumbling 5 times this season while averaging a miserable 2.6 YPC and cracking the 50 yard barrier only once this season.

The Bengals use a 3 WR, 1 TE scheme and usually leave the tight end in for pass blocking help. They did this with Reggie Kelly over the years, but now have Ben Utecht to take over Kelly’s old duties.  Of course this didn’t save Carson Palmer from getting creamed earlier this year.  The Steelers will definitely be able to get pressure on the QB and with a young inexperienced guy back there, responding to that pressure will require a Herculean effort.

The Steelers have been coy about the returns of NT Fats Hampton and DE Bret Keisel.  Not to downgrade these excellent players but the defense was more than fine without them as Chris Hoke, Travis Kirschke, and Nick Eason formed a solid line in their absence.  They held the hard-running Jaguars to only 50 yards on the ground and now they’re going against a team that can’t run the ball at all.  You do the math.

Cincinnati will have to throw the ball, early and often.  Luckily for them, good WRs they do have.  Chad Uno (TD catches this year) is the speed guy and it’s tough to argue with a guy who has finished 2nd, 5th and 6th in WR DPAR in the last three seasons.  He wanted out of Cincy last year and Mike Brown refused to trade him and take an $8 million cap hit.  He’s clearly moved on to plan B, the Randy Moss Scenario, where he has decided to play like crap so the team will give up on him after this year.  The Bengals are fortunate to have another superstar receiver in TJ Houshmandzadeh on the other side of the field from Uno.  While Housh is the “hands” of the team, he’s nowhere near as fast as Johnson, but he’s much bigger and has really good speed for his size.

Our secondary Triple Threat of Ike Taylor, Bryant McFadden, and Deshea Townshend has played very well all year long.  As long as they show up to play this Sunday things should be under control although mental lapses of any kind and the Bengals do have the players to hurt you.  They also have the players to steal, rape, punch, and drunkenly crash into you but that’s another story.

STEELER OFFENSE vs. BENGALS DEFENSE

Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is a 3-4 coach but due to personnel has been forced to stick with Marvin Lewis’ favored 4-3 scheme.  The Bengals are one of those teams who love to use a lot of Cover 2 zone.  Over the years, they have struggled heavily against the run. Here’s how their average yards allowed per carry have looked under Marvin Lewis:

2003……..4.8
2004……..4.4
2005……..4.3
2006……..4.2
2007……..4.2

Fast Willie Parker was set to make his return this Sunday and licking his lips over the chance to run against that defense.  He already has four 100 yard games against them and would very likely add a fifth this weekend.  Then he stepped in a hole.   Yes, you read that right.  A first class, professionally run organization which spares no expense in strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation equipment for their players has evidently lost a key player to injury because of a POTHOLE.

I have no idea who the Steelers employ to take care of both Heinz and their practice fields but they should be fired immediately.   Meanwhile, Mewelde Moore, who offense coordinator Bruce Arians didn’t seem to realize was on this team until two weeks ago, has performed tremendously in FWP’s absence.  It looks like he’ll be given the featured back role once again this Sunday.   Hopefully he’ll have the same success he had against the much stouter-against-the-run Jaguars.

With Zimmer running the defense, Ben Roethlisberger can almost breathe a sigh of relief this week.  The Cowboys went from 34 sacks under Zimmer in 2006 to 46 sacks under Wade Phillips in 2007 because of different philosophies as the players stayed the same.  Expect a very conservative defense that will likely blitz only in very obvious or very safe situations.  The linebacker position for the Bengals is in disarray as the only player solid at a position is rookie Keith Rivers, an explosive weakside backer. Odell Thurman was a trouble-maker who’s not playing for them anymore. He won my defensive rookie of the year award in 2005, even over Lofa Tatupa, so it’s sad when you think how good he once was.

I’ve come to the conclusion that Big Ben is going to take some sacks no matter how good of a line we put in front of him because of his tendency to hold the ball and his belief that he can escape any situation to make a big play.  As such, I think the baseline for sacks/game is about 3.  Even with minimal pressure and good blocking, Ben is going to go down several times a game simply because of his playing style.

WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes should still be able to find room out there and make a few plays.  I’d also look for TE Heath Miller to have his first big game of the year.  With their lack of pass rush and weak LB corp, he’ll be able release off the line and roam around in open space a lot more often this week than in previous ones.

One the surface, the winless Bengals don’t seem to have much going for them.  But as we saw last week when two 0-fer teams got their first victories, a hungry and desperate NFL team is a dangerous NFL team.   Also, for as bleak as the future looks, other than a terrible effort against the Titans, Cincinnati has played competitively almost every week.  Three of their losses have been by a TD or less and they took the World Champion Giants to OT.  Even if Ocho Bozo has given up, it doesn’t appear the team as a whole has.  No matter what the year, what the record, or who the QB, be it Neil O’Donnell, Jon Kitna, or Jeff Blake, the Bengals usually play the Steelers tough.  With some of the hardest games of the year on the horizon, let’s hope this week isn’t one where the Black and Gold look past their opponent and fall into a trap.